Sunday, May 18, 2008

Best Market Chances

A string of losses was broken and I have resumed the trading. Hope it was just a fluke and this system is back.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Heed the warning - Past performance is no guaranty of future results.

You have probably seen this warning many times when you signed up for your brokerage account and on C2 web site as well. Well, take it seriously!

Since, I have came upon c2 web site I have tried to use all tools at my disposal to select winning systems, however, the track record is not encouraging. Out of 4 systems I have tried, I had to discontinue or suspend 3: mwz, best market chance and CHF.volabreakout.

Then there were 7 systems that I thought looked pretty good but collapsed since I began tracking them Slow and steady, Spy options, Team aphid bird, Trendsensor II Jumbo and Golden Index, Grain Analyst and Fundamentals Only. In this sample I have a pretty wide range of trading styles and underlying instruments represented. I guess, the only saving grace is that I did not subscribe to them. It's a small consolation - but I will take what I can.

There are still 5 systems that I am watching that has not collapsed: DeltaHedge, Dgmma, Gold Survivor $10k portfolio, Gold Survivor Energy, Index Spreads, Ruby NQ100 M. So, 5 out of 12 not collapsed rate so far.

I am still subscribed to Have Fun however, performance has not measured up to what it was previously.

To get to next level it is really critical that C2 brings together in one place all the early warning signs that the system is about to collapse and signs that system is already collapsing. Right now, it is still too hard.

I would be interested to hear from anyone who has successfully traded portfolio of systems for longer than 3 months.

Best Market Chances


Subscribed since May 1

Suspended May 14: Encountered a highly improbable long string of losses inconsistent with previous performance. Average performance before this string of losses was about $288 per trade per contract and trading as often as it does is likely to result in phenomenal returns. Until it no longer does what it did in the past...

Trading costs of this system are high - about $400 per month at a current trading frequency . There are also some issues with Interactive Broker / Trade Bullet set-up that I am using. Orders are sent to exchange right after it is closed resulting in rejected orders. C2 log seems to contain a lot of errors - for example slippage of >$100, which may or may not affects statistics.

This system is trading night and day from Sunday to Friday. Do not try it until you have autotrading set-up one way or another.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

I suspended trading of CHF.VolaBreakout



I am suspending my trading today. Likelihood of 5 consecutive losses in a loosing streak, given it is a loosing streak, is only couple of percent. This chart is created using last 6 month of trading data as available on Collective2 web site. This is first time in 6 month 5 losses in a row has happened. According to system's vendor max loss run since inception is 8. I will be watching if the system returns to a more reasonable win/loss distribution.

Very high likelihood that the system is broken.